Krugman: I'm in the camp that really worries about the L-shaped recession. We level off but we don't get the recovery. We hope it isn't, but it has all the markings of it. This looks like the kind of slump that has all the markings of where normal recovery forces are very, very weak.
It's hard to see where recovery comes from. Almost always the way a country recovers from a financial crisis is with an export boom. The problem is that we have a global crisis this time. So who are we going to export to, unless we find another planet to take our stuff?
Intervista a Nuriel Roudini su Washington Post, 27.04.2009
What is going to fuel the next growth cycle?
That is a difficult question because the periods of high growth in the United States in the last 25 years have been characterized by an asset and credit bubble. The real estate bubble of the '80s ended up with pain in the [savings-and-loan] crisis. Then came the tech bubble, which ended up in another crash and led to a recession. And now we have this more generalized housing and credit bubble, which ended up in a big disaster. . . . We have to switch our capital into things that are more productive and more stable in terms of social growth. That is going to be a challenge. And the potential growth rate might fall to a much lower rate.
Sempre Krugman: chiude il suo articolo su NYT del 27 aprile 2009 in questo modo:
Or maybe not. There’s a palpable sense in the financial press that the storm has passed: stocks are up, the economy’s nose-dive may be leveling off, and the Obama administration will probably let the bankers off with nothing more than a few stern speeches. Rightly or wrongly, the bankers seem to believe that a return to business as usual is just around the corner.
We can only hope that our leaders prove them wrong, and carry through with real reform. In 2008, overpaid bankers taking big risks with other people’s money brought the world economy to its knees. The last thing we need is to give them a chance to do it all over again.
L'impressione infatti è che non sia cambiato quasi nulla nel comportamento del mondo finanziario, che stia aspettando di ricominciare come prima, che in realtà continui a scambiarsi derivati e altri titoli ugualmente pericolosi alla stessa maniera di un anno fa.
Inoltre sarebbe da considerare che la Cina sta prendendo posizione sul mercato delle materie prime, approfittando di una fase di prezzi molto bassi, che in una qualche maniera gli stock di magazzino dovevano essere ricostruiti, che il mercato dell'auto sia stato tenuto in piedi dai soldi dei contribuenti: difficile quindi pensare che ci possa essere all'orizzonte chissà quale ripresa a breve.
E il dubbio cresce ancora di più se si osserva il rialzare della testa proprio dei banchieri e delle compagnie di assicurazione, che sono i principali responsabilid del disastro finanziario mondiale, dei fondamentalisti del mercato che si autoregola in breve tempo, etc. etc.
Temo che i tempi saranno ancora più duri, altro che tempesta finita!
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